From: Lucian Mogosanu Date: Sun, 7 Aug 2016 14:01:19 +0000 (+0300) Subject: posts: 04c, 04d X-Git-Tag: v0.9~8 X-Git-Url: https://git.mogosanu.ro/?a=commitdiff_plain;h=c2be2ca1b9ae9f436bf0dba5fc3e871851259a92;p=thetarpit.git posts: 04c, 04d --- diff --git a/posts/y03/04c-young-boy-brave-man-old-man-hermeticae.markdown b/posts/y03/04c-young-boy-brave-man-old-man-hermeticae.markdown new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bb4be8a --- /dev/null +++ b/posts/y03/04c-young-boy-brave-man-old-man-hermeticae.markdown @@ -0,0 +1,46 @@ +--- +postid: '04c' +title: The young Boy, the brave Man and the old Man (fabellae hermeticae) +date: July 24, 2016 +author: Lucian Mogoșanu +tags: storytime +--- + +The young Boy was walking on the dark, lonely path along with his +Friends. It was a familiar road, well travelled but not without its +perils. But alas, it could not be avoided. + +At a crossroads the young Boy's Friends suddenly turned to him and told +him that they want to run, run away as fast as they can and never be +found again, never to look back. + +And so they did. + +And the young Boy was left disillusioned, without any Friends to walk +along with him on his path. + +

⁂

+ +The brave Man was riding on a horse through the Citadel. An unusually +large number of people filled the streets; the crowd was of a +suffocating thickness. + +Suddenly, from the crowd a smiling Woman waved at the brave Man. "Where +are you going?" she asked him. "I am going home," he answered. + +The Woman approached him, a wide smile still on her face, and asked, +"may I join you on the ride to your Castle, to your Kingdom?" + +The brave Man frowned. "Indeed, I once had a Castle and I once had a +Kingdom. But I lost them, or should I say, I gave them up. All I have +left now is this horse to carry me to places and soothe my sorrows." + +The Woman excused herself and left. + +And thus the brave Man (who perhaps was not so brave after all) was left +disillusioned, with but a horse and no Kingdom, and indeed, no Castle to +dwell upon. + +

⁂

+ +The old Man died alone, like all Men eventually do. diff --git a/posts/y03/04d-future-of-computing-hardware.markdown b/posts/y03/04d-future-of-computing-hardware.markdown new file mode 100644 index 0000000..35f563c --- /dev/null +++ b/posts/y03/04d-future-of-computing-hardware.markdown @@ -0,0 +1,228 @@ +--- +postid: '04d' +title: On the future of computing hardware +date: August 7, 2016 +author: Lucian Mogoșanu +tags: asphalt, tech +--- + +One, systems tend to get smaller. + +Mathematicians with an inclination for studying so-called "systems" may +without much effort look at various examples of such "systems" and +devise quantitative measures of complexity. For example the mammal's +organism is highly complex on various levels of abstraction, say, when +looking at its average genetic makeup; the same can be said about social +networks[^1], global weather[^2] or the motion of stars. + +These complexities are however against the intuition we have in +engineering. That is because human-made systems are not only designed to +be functional, but to also be as deterministic as possible; and such +determinism cannot be achieved without a proper understanding of the +theoretical model used in designs and *especially* its +limitations. "Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication", and +"everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler", but +also "simplicity is prerequisite for reliability", to quote only a few +aphorisms. + +We can observe empirically that systems' complexity, or rather some +measure of their "size", evolves cyclically. Dinosaurs evolved to be +huge creatures, only to be replaced in time by miniaturized versions of +themselves[^3]. The first simple computing systems had the size of a +room, while large-scale integration has led to computers which fit on +the tip of one's finger. This reduction in size comes with reduction in +certain features' size and/or complexity, which is why for example +humans don't have tails, nor the amount of body hair of some of their +ancestors, nor sharp canines. + +Looking at the evolution of various industries in the last few +decades[^4], it is clear that they are currently in the latter phase of +the growth-reduction cycle. It is only natural that the so-called +hardware, and more specifically numerical computers made out of +silicon[^5] will follow. + +

⁂

+ +Two, on shaky foundations; transcending ideological confusions. + +The fact that nowadays' hardware industry stems from the needs of +[marketing][marketing], as opposed to the needs of the market, is +well-known. This charade started with personal computers, then it was +followed by mobile phones, tablets, and now so-called "smart devices" +from "the Internet of things", which operate in cycles of what is known +in economics as "planned obsolescence"[^6]. + +Purely from the perspective of computing hardware, this leads to the +proliferation of functionality that is useless, or worse, harmful to +the average consumer. For example the new generation of Intel Skylake +processors come with Intel SGX, Intel MPX and possibly others; all this +at the expense of reliability[^7], and at the same time without +advancing the state of the art in any fundamental sense. All they do is +offer some clients new ways to shoot themselves in the foot, and Intel +are by no means a singular case[^8]. + +Degrading processor quality aside, there are quite a few pragmatic +factors lying behind the existence of the planned +obsolescence-aggressive marketing vicious circle. For one, it's easier +to scale silicon production up than to scale it down, as it's more +effective to fabricate a large wafer containing smaller and smaller +processors than to produce in smaller numbers[^9]. Meanwhile, some of +the steps in the manufacturing cycles (still) require significant human +workforce (for the time being), which makes eastern Asia the prime +choice for production[^10]. Thus the per-unit cost of producing a +processor is higher for smaller batches (say, a hundred at most), while +e.g. smartphone assembly in high numbers will necessarily rely on +poorsters in China. + +This context however underlies a problem of a more ideological nature, +that has been recently, yet unfruitfully, [discussed][freedom-x86] in +the free software world: there is a general lack of choice in +general-purpose hardware architectures, and given the situation above, +it's not likely that this will improve. We are most likely heading into +a duopoly between ARM and x86, while the fate of MIPS is not quite +certain[^11], IBM's Power is somewhat expensive and FPGAs likewise, +barring the very low-entry ones. The open RISC-V architecture offers +some hope, given Google's interest in them, but I wouldn't get my hopes +up just yet. + +This is not the first time I am writing about this. I have touched on +the subject on [the old blog][hardware-liber] a while ago, and I have +also discussed some of the (still current) issues in a previous +[Tar Pit post][3d-printing]. People don't seem to have gotten their +heads out of the sand since then, so I will reiterate. + +

⁂

+ +Three, I want to build my own hardware. + +To be honest, I don't care too much about Intel, Qualcomm, Apple and +their interests. If Romanians were building their own computers[^12] +back in the days before "personal computer" was a thing, then I don't +see why I couldn't do this in the 2010s. Whether it's made feasible by +3D printing, some different technology or maybe some hybrid +approach[^13], this is a high-priority goal for the development of a +sane post-industrial world and in order to pick up the useful remains of +the decaying Western civilization. However one would put it, small-scale +hardware production is the next evolutionary step in the existence of +numerical computers. + +It is readily observable that[^14] the computer industry is heading +towards a mono-culture, not only in hardware, but also in operating +systems[^15] and in "systems" in general. This will -- not might, not +probably, but definitely -- have the effect of turning the "systems" +world into a world of (often false) beliefs, much akin to Asimov's +Church of Science, where people will not even conceive the possibility +of existence of other "systems". + +I am of course not crazy enough to attempt to stop this. The industry +can burn to the ground as far as I'm concerned, and this it will, and +it'll be of their own making. What I want is to gather the means to +survive through this coming post-industrial wasteland. + +[^1]: By which I mean specifically not the jokes the average Westerner + calls "social networks". Facebook, Twitter, Reddit et al. are only + networks in the sense that they reduce the level of interaction to + at best that of monkeys throwing typewriters around; at best. The + average level is rather Pavlovian in nature. + +[^2]: Weather, not climate. Mkay? + +[^3]: Which taste like chicken. + +[^4]: Popescu's "[The end of democracy][trilema-democracy]" is required + reading on this matter. + +[^5]: Unless some other better, faster, stronger material takes its + place. Which I kind of doubt, given that science is also + [in a period of stagnation][academic-hogwash], and that is putting + it very mildly. + +[^6]: Which, although probably perceived by the naïve as capitalist, is + rather reminiscent of the old communist planned economy model. And + not unlike communist economy, it often leads to higher prices and + lower quality products. To bear in mind next time you're buying that + new Samsung or Apple smartphone. + +[^7]: Dan Luu's + "[We saw some really bad Intel CPU bugs in 2015, and we should expect to see more in the future][dan-luu]" + is required reading on this particular matter. + +[^8]: ARM are somewhat more conservative, but they offer SoC producers + enough freedom to shoot their clients in the foot. Without any + doubt, the average Qualcomm phone is most probably running Secure + World software that the end user will never care about, and that the + curious mind will never have the chance to reverse engineer -- + without considerable financial resources, anyway. That's a good + thing, you say? Well, it's your opinion, you're entitled to it, + please stick it up your ass. + + But what am I saying? By all means, please *do* buy whatever shiny + shit Apple or Samsung are selling you. As long as it's not *my* + money... + +[^9]: There are quite a few technical reasons for this too, and some of + these escape me. For one, opening a semiconductor plant isn't + exactly cheap, and the ratio of defects to units produced is + significant, yet in principle easy to estimate statistically. The + cost of making a circular wafer is also not small, which makes + economic feasibility a tricky thing. Meanwhile, bear in mind that + Moore's law is on its way to becoming dead and buried, given that + CMOS-based technologies are reaching their physical limits. + +[^10]: To be perfectly clear, the world's largest silicon producer is at + the time of writing not Intel, but Taiwan Semiconductor + Manufacturing Company, Ltd. + +[^11]: Imagination Technologies, the intellectual property holder, have + not been faring too well in 2016. + +[^12]: Remember the story of the [ICE Felix HC][balls-clean] that was + the toy in my early computing days, before I had the slightest idea + of what an algorithm actually was. Now ponder the fact that there is + no *qualitative* difference between that piece of junk and today's + latest, greatest, whateverest computer. Yes, you can do the exact + same things on that old heap of junk, and by "exact" I certainly do + not mean watching porn, by which I mean that this is why your + children will prefer make-believe sex instead of fucking real women, + which uncoincidentally is why Arabs are the superior ethnicity and + those God-awful political corectnesses will stop being a thing in + less than a generation. But I digress. + + As a funny historical footnote, the same Romanians attempted at + making [a Lisp machine][dialisp] back in the '80s, which makes me + hopeful that the same thing should be achievable almost three to + four decades later. I hate repeating myself, but it's quite + literally either this or the dark ages. + +[^13]: The approach itself is relevant only as far as it solves the most + problematic economical aspects, i.e. logistics (needs to be made + using readily available and/or easily procurable materials) and low + production costs of a small number of units (tens to a few hundreds + at most). Processing speed and size are secondary aspects, a Z80 (or + maybe something equivalent to a 80386) should really be enough for + most general-purpose-ey uses. + +[^14]: Much to the baffling ignorance of otherwise intelligent + people. Unfortunately for them, nature abhors singularities; as one + of the older and wiser men in the Romanian Computer Science + community used to remind us, there is, simply put, a cost for + abso-fucking-lutely everything in life. + +[^15]: In case you were wondering, despite being the most usable kernel + to date, Linux is definitely *the* ultimate abomination. Its + greatest feature is that it's not too difficult to strip of all the + crap. + + If you don't know what I'm talking about, take a look at + [CVE-2016-0728][cve-2016-0728] for example. + +[trilema-democracy]: http://trilema.com/2016/the-end-of-democracy/ +[academic-hogwash]: /posts/y02/045-academic-hogwash.html +[marketing]: /posts/y02/043-on-the-failure-of-marketing.html +[dan-luu]: http://danluu.com/cpu-bugs/ +[freedom-x86]: http://mail.fsfeurope.org/pipermail/discussion/2016-April/010912.html +[hardware-liber]: http://lucian.mogosanu.ro/bricks/viitorul-hardware-ului-liber/ +[3d-printing]: /posts/y00/01c-3d-printing.html +[balls-clean]: /posts/y01/035-with-our-balls-clean.html +[dialisp]: http://www.atic.org.ro/ktml2/files/uploads/Masina%20DIALISP.pdf +[cve-2016-0728]: https://security-tracker.debian.org/tracker/CVE-2016-0728